San Diego Real Estate Outlook 2010

According to Sign On San Diego’s Roger Showley, the Urban Land Institute released its “Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010” report last week.  On the report’s 9-point scale, San Diego’s real estate market is predicted to improve to 5, a whopping one tenth of a point above 2009’s ranking. What does this mean? Not much really, but it does mean that things certainly are not getting worse.

As we all know, San Diego’s residential sector took an enormous hit dropping from a median home price of $517,500 in 2005, to a much more realistic $325,000. An now, with the residential market coming around, so too will other real estate sectors. Showley reports that Jonathan Miller, a consultant for PricewaterhouseCoopers, who wrote the “Emerging Trends” report said “San Diego is improving because its housing market, having declined earlier than markets in most places, has “stabilized” and is thus setting the stage for nonresidential properties to recover.” “Setting the stage” doesn’t mean nonresidential properties WILL recover in 2010, but I don’t think anyone is going to complain about a stabilizing market that brings with it the hope of once again having flourishing real estate market, even if it is still a ways off.

What else did the reports say?

“For 2010, the market is a pure hold’ meaning investors should retain their properties and not rush to buy or sell.”

“Shopping center owners should ‘hang on for dear life’ as retailers struggle with falling sales and many vacate their premises.”

“Office-building landlords should expect a game of ‘tenant musical chairs’ as lessees seek the best deals.”

“Hotels can’t get any worse but will ‘lead the commercial real estate industry in recovery’ as the economy improves.”

As for San Diego, even a miniscule glint of improvement on the real estate front is a sign of hope. Jonathon Miller adds, “the point is San Diego, unlike some other markets, has taken a tough hit here, but it appears to be stabilizing, and that’s better than other markets around the country.”  It’s funny to think that just a few years ago “appreciation” was the word that was being used. Appreciation was expected and relied upon, and taken for granted. And now, with our heads in our hands and hopefully a little wiser, appreciation is a distant memory. Now, the word “Stabilizing” holds a similar connotation that “appreciation” once had.

10 thoughts on “San Diego Real Estate Outlook 2010”

  1. I have never been able to visit San Diego, but I have heard many good things about it. I think many places are taking quite an economical downturn, however with so many factors involved…not all forcasts are always correct. Hopefull things get better before they get any worse. Great post.

  2. paternoster properties

    Things don’t look good for the San Diego real estate market. Its seems we will just have to hold on for a little longer before things get better.

  3. Real Estate Investment Dude

    I agree that 2010 will be the year of “the bottom,” but not likely until the summer of 2010. Faster real estate appreciation will always exist in landlocked/nicer weather/good economy geographies in the U.S. but we’ve been hammered here just like dozens of other areas. We have a long way to go and very well not see a significant rebound until 2012.

  4. Similar is happening in our area and unfortunately inflation is creeping up which is going to lead to mortgage rates being raised which will make things worse before they get better. Good post, thanks.

  5. House values need to reset from there overly inflated prices and unemployment needs to decrease significantly. After both if these things have happened people will start to spend more and home values will eventually rise.

  6. Jacksonville Real Estate

    With an improvement in the job scene, RE in places like San Diego will defnitely improve.

  7. Hey Alex… wow… I know it feels like you guys took a big hit out there… but here, in Riverside County we experienced approximately a 40% – 50% drop in value. I was just talking with my broker today about recovery. I don’t think we’re there yet. It seems like a noble idea to try to modify loans, then short sale (the hamp plan) but I think it’s keeping us from reaching stabilization which is the next step BEFORE we are in to recovery. Anyway… we’ll see!
    .-= Buy Foreclosed Homes´s last blog ..Can I Use Financing When I Buy Foreclosed Homes? =-.

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